The Philippines will need to import 5.7 million tonnes of rice in 2027, the US Department of Agriculture said on 26 September, revising its earlier forecast upward as drier El Nino weather and elevated fertiliser costs squeeze the country’s harvest. The figure is up from a previous estimate of 5.6 million tonnes and well above the 3.4 million tonnes the country imported in 2025.
The USDA’s Manila post lowered its 2027 production forecast to 12.25 million tonnes of palay, or unmilled rice, down from 12.4 million tonnes, citing drier conditions expected between May and June next year. It also flagged higher fertiliser costs as a separate drag on yields, since costlier inputs tend to push smallholder farmers toward reduced application rates, which lowers output per hectare. The agency estimated the combined effect at roughly 700,000 tonnes of lost production.
Government resists an import freeze
The Department of Agriculture has so far declined to halt rice imports outright, choosing instead to build strategic stockpiles and rely on the private sector to help stabilise consumer prices. That decision has drawn criticism from some farmer groups, who argue that rising imports depress local farmgate prices even as retail prices for consumers stay high. The Manila Times described the government’s approach as “erratic” in a 25 September report, noting that policy has shifted between import curbs and liberalisation multiple times in the past two years.
Reservoir levels recovered somewhat in August and September, which the USDA said should help dry-season planting even if the underlying El Nino pattern persists into 2027. That partial recovery is one reason the revised import figure rose only modestly rather than sharply, despite the more pessimistic production outlook.
A regional pattern, not an isolated shock
The Philippines imports more rice than any other country in Southeast Asia, and its exposure to El Nino cycles has become a recurring feature of regional food-security planning. The pattern connects to wider warnings this week about strained global food supply chains: India’s external affairs minister told the Asia Society in New York that fertiliser shortages and disrupted trade routes could trigger a major global food crisis, a dynamic that shows up concretely in Manila’s own fertiliser-driven production shortfall.
Rice remains the most politically sensitive commodity in Philippine food policy, since it is the dominant staple for most households and a major driver of headline inflation. Sharp price swings have previously triggered public unrest, which is one reason the agriculture department has been reluctant to let import volumes fall even as domestic output softens.
Typhoon damage earlier this year compounded the pressure. Local reporting put the farm-damage bill from severe storms in early September at 362 billion Philippine pesos, equivalent to roughly $5.8 billion (about £4.3 billion) at September 2026 exchange rates. That damage fell heavily on rice-growing provinces, though the USDA’s production forecast already accounts for a partial recovery.
For now, the government’s strategy rests on stockpiling combined with steady, if increased, import volumes rather than emergency measures. Whether that approach holds through 2027 will depend heavily on how the El Nino pattern develops over the coming planting season, and on whether fertiliser costs ease from their current elevated levels.
Farmer groups have pressed the department to pair any import increase with direct support for fertiliser costs, arguing that smallholders bear the sharpest end of the price squeeze while importers and traders are comparatively insulated. The department has so far offered targeted subsidies in some provinces rather than a nationwide scheme, citing budget constraints, a position that is likely to remain contentious as the 2027 planting season approaches and farmers weigh whether reduced fertiliser use is worth the resulting yield risk.
