Zimbabwe grain imports drought concerns have pushed the cabinet to approve reopening private-sector imports, reversing recent restrictions, as the government braces for a sharp fall in domestic cereal production, Information, Publicity and Broadcasting Services Minister Zhemu Soda said at a post-cabinet media briefing in Harare, according to AllAfrica and a Xinhua wire report carried by The Star Malaysia.
Soda said total cereal production for the 2026/2027 season is projected to fall to 1.6 million tonnes, down from 2.68 million tonnes the previous season, a drop of about 40%. Zimbabwe’s Meteorological Services Department has forecast below-normal rainfall for the October 2026 to March 2027 growing season, and Soda linked the outlook to what he described as a severe El Niño pattern combined with geopolitical tensions that have raised fuel and fertiliser costs and disrupted supply chains.
A season officials call a stress test
Soda called the coming season “a critical stress test” for Zimbabwe’s agricultural resilience. Under the reopened policy, private companies will be permitted to import grain for commercial and human-consumption use as well as livestock feed, while households will continue to be able to import basic food items directly, reversing tighter controls introduced earlier in the year to protect local producers.
The reversal sits alongside Statutory Instrument 87 of 2025, which from 1 April 2026 required grain, oilseed and related processing companies to source at least 40% of their raw materials locally. Officials say the local-sourcing requirement remains in place even as import channels reopen, reflecting an attempt to balance support for domestic farmers against the risk of shortages in a season where local production is expected to fall well short of demand.
A regional picture of mixed fortunes
Zimbabwe’s projected shortfall contrasts sharply with neighbouring Zambia, which has just harvested its largest maize crop on record at an estimated 4.9 million tonnes, leaving a surplus of roughly 2 million tonnes after domestic needs are met. The gap between the two countries, despite broadly similar maize-dependent farming systems, illustrates how unevenly this season’s rainfall has been distributed across southern Africa.
Zimbabwean officials have not yet detailed which countries or companies are expected to supply the reopened import channel, though regional surpluses in Zambia and South Africa, which harvested about 17 million tonnes, offer potential nearby sources. Soda said the government would monitor the season closely and adjust import and local-sourcing rules again if conditions change.
Agricultural economists tracking the region say Zimbabwe’s response will be watched closely as a test of how southern African governments balance food security against support for domestic grain producers during a difficult season.
Zimbabwe has swung between tightening and loosening grain-import rules several times in recent years as harvests have fluctuated with rainfall, a pattern officials attribute to the difficulty of planning a season’s trade policy months before actual yields are known. The latest reversal, coming so soon after restrictions were tightened, has drawn criticism from some grain traders who say the frequent policy changes make it harder for private importers to plan purchases and logistics in advance.
Smallholder farmers, who produce the bulk of Zimbabwe’s maize and other staple cereals, are likely to feel the shortfall most directly if the season’s rainfall forecast proves accurate. Government support programmes, including input subsidies for seed and fertiliser, have in past drought years helped cushion some smallholders against total crop failure, though officials have not yet detailed whether similar support will be extended again this particular season given the fiscal pressure of a shrinking overall harvest.
