Four cargo vessels carrying urea, di-ammonium phosphate and sulphur crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 22 June bound for the Indian ports of Krishnapatnam, Kakinada, Paradip and Mundra. The shipments were routine in volume but not in context. Since fighting between Iran, Israel and the United States flared in late February, India’s fertiliser supply chain has been quietly rerouting away from the Gulf and toward Africa, with Morocco and Egypt emerging as the biggest beneficiaries.
India’s chemicals and fertilisers ministry says the shift has so far avoided disruption for farmers. Domestic stocks stood at 19.6 million tonnes in late June, up from 16.9 million tonnes a year earlier, while the current planting season has already used 15.34 million tonnes of fertiliser, more than half of it urea. A deal with Morocco’s state phosphate group OCP secured 2.5 million tonnes for the current season, around 29 percent of the volume India had hoped to lock in internationally, and officials say roughly 28 diplomatic missions, concentrated in North and sub-Saharan Africa, are now scouting further suppliers.
Morocco’s ports gain new importance
Morocco’s Atlantic terminals at Jorf Lasfar and Safi have become more attractive precisely because they sidestep the Gulf chokepoint. The country already supplies over half of Africa’s phosphate rock and ranks among the world’s top five phosphate exporters, and together with Egypt accounts for roughly 70 percent of the continent’s fertiliser exports. Phosphate cargoes bound for India now also arrive from the United States, Jordan, South Korea and Tunisia, while urea increasingly comes from Oman, Vietnam, Turkey and the Netherlands as well as Algeria and Egypt.
That demand carries a cost for African farmers competing for the same cargoes. Urea prices have climbed from under $500 a tonne before the conflict to above $700 a tonne in recent weeks, a jump that analysts warn could have lasting effects on food production across import-dependent economies. Nearly half of the sulphur used worldwide in phosphate fertiliser normally moves through Hormuz from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, and reduced throughput has already forced some Gulf processing plants to scale back output, a strain this publication previously reported was already dragging on Gulf economies more broadly as the strait stayed shut.
Thin margins for African growers
The strain lands on a continent that uses fertiliser sparingly to begin with. African farmers apply an average of 17 to 23 kilogrammes per hectare, against a global average of 135 kilogrammes, even though agriculture employs 60 to 70 percent of the continent’s workforce and over 80 percent in Burundi, Malawi and Madagascar. Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, Zambia, Kenya and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are named among the net importers most exposed to higher food inflation and weaker yields if prices stay elevated. The strain is a reminder that food-security shocks can emerge from conflict as easily as from markets: this publication has also reported on Gaza’s hunger crisis, where aid agencies warn gains made since the ceasefire remain fragile.
Policy analysts argue the episode strengthens the case for regional self-reliance. Nigeria, Egypt and Algeria already produce nitrogen fertiliser from domestic natural gas, while Mozambique, Tanzania and Senegal hold reserves that could support further output if investment follows. Deeper integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area, paired with cheaper transport and storage, would let production in one country reach farmers in another without a second long voyage. Agri-tech platforms such as Hello Tractor and Apollo Agriculture are already helping smallholders access inputs and credit on shorter notice, a model officials say could matter more if Gulf shipping lanes stay unsettled through the rest of the year.
India’s next international fertiliser tenders are expected toward the end of the 2026-27 fiscal year, by which point the ministry hopes the Hormuz crisis will have eased. Until then, the episode is a reminder that no country’s fertiliser supply chain stays insulated from a single shipping lane for long.
