The UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points in September 2026, up 1.5 percent from August and the highest reading since November 2022. The rise was driven by cereals, up 5.1 percent, and sugar, up 6.1 percent, alongside firmer vegetable oil prices, according to FAO’s monthly release.
FAO attributed the increase to a combination of logistics disruption and weather. Tensions affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and continued disruption around Black Sea export routes have raised freight and insurance costs for grain cargoes, while dry conditions in India and Thailand have hit sugar cane yields just as global demand holds steady. The index tracks a basket of internationally traded food commodities and is widely used by governments and aid agencies alike to anticipate pressure on domestic food budgets months before it reaches household shopping baskets.
FAO’s chief economist warned that the increase will filter through to consumer prices within weeks, “especially in food and energy import dependent countries,” a group that includes much of the Gulf, large parts of Africa and several South and Southeast Asian economies that rely on imported wheat, rice and vegetable oil to meet domestic demand.
Why the Gulf and South Asia feel it first
Countries that import most of their staple grain and sugar tend to see international price index moves reach supermarket shelves faster than countries with large domestic harvests to draw on. Gulf states, which import the overwhelming majority of their food, and South Asian economies managing their own currency pressures are typically among the first to register FAO index increases in retail prices, a pattern already visible in this week’s separate news of emergency wheat-flour subsidies in Pakistan.
The September rise follows a year in which FAO’s index had moved mostly sideways, making the jump notable to commodity analysts tracking whether 2026 marks a turning point after several relatively calm years for global food prices. Cereal markets in particular have been sensitive to shipping-route risk, since wheat, maize and rice cargoes routed around disrupted chokepoints add weeks and significant cost to delivery times.
Sugar’s 6.1 percent rise stands out because it reflects weather rather than shipping disruption. Dry conditions across sugar-growing regions of India and Thailand, two of the world’s largest producers, have reduced expected cane yields just as global consumption holds broadly steady, a combination that tends to push prices up faster than supply-chain disruptions alone typically allow.
What happens next
FAO’s monthly index is a leading indicator rather than a retail price itself, meaning the full effect on household budgets typically lags by four to eight weeks as import contracts and retail pricing catch up. Governments in import-dependent countries often respond with subsidies, strategic reserve releases or temporary import-duty cuts to cushion the impact, tools several South Asian and Gulf governments have already begun deploying this month.
Whether September’s rise proves temporary or the start of a sustained climb will depend largely on how quickly Hormuz-related shipping risk eases and whether India and Thailand’s sugar harvests recover in the coming months. FAO economists say they are watching both factors closely before revising their outlook for the rest of the year. Vegetable oil prices, the index’s third rising component, have tracked palm oil output trends in Indonesia and Malaysia, both of which have reported improving supply this season even as demand continues to climb.
