Proarándanos, the Peruvian blueberry exporters’ association, has cut its yield forecast for the 2026/27 season for the second time in weeks. The estimate falls four per cent, from 382,000 to 366,000 metric tonnes. The association blames El Nino-linked heat, which it says has hit the crop harder than expected despite a strong start to the campaign. It warned that exportable volumes are likely to fall further alongside the yield.
The downgrade follows a season in which Peru cemented its position as the world’s leading blueberry producer and exporter. The country’s agriculture ministry, Midagri, reported that Peru overtook Chile and Spain by the end of 2025. Full-year 2025 exports exceeded $2.46 billion on 373,514 tonnes, a 14.6 per cent rise in volume on the year before. That momentum carried into 2026. In the first seven months of 2026, export value reached $620.2 million. That was up 64.8 per cent on the same period in 2025. Volume reached 84,800 tonnes, also up 45.1 per cent.
Midagri credits that growth to both higher shipped volumes and stronger average prices, even as El Nino-linked heat weighed on the crop through the year. The United States remained by far Peru’s largest market. It took $347.6 million of exports in the first seven months of 2026, up 79.5 per cent. That accounted for 56 per cent of total export value. The Netherlands followed with $104.9 million, 16.9 per cent of the total. China took $36.1 million, or 5.8 per cent. Together, the three markets accounted for nearly 79 per cent of Peru’s blueberry exports. Midagri flagged that concentration as a risk if demand softens in any one of them.
Where Peru grows its blueberries
Peru’s blueberry industry covers 29,127 hectares. The northern region of La Libertad accounts for 12,888 hectares, Lambayeque for 7,519 hectares, and the southern region of Ica for 4,199 hectares. Together, those three regions make up 84 per cent of the planted area. La Libertad’s production rose 106 per cent as of July 2026, Midagri said, driven by higher-yielding varieties and favourable weather earlier in the year. Ica’s output grew on newly planted area and strong demand, and the region is now the fastest-growing area for new plantings.
A revision Proarándanos expects to repeat
Proarándanos says the past few weeks have confirmed a downward trend in the crop. That marks a sharp shift from the strong early-season pace that had underpinned the original 382,000-tonne forecast. The association plans to publish a further update within two weeks, and says it will issue revisions more often while the unfavourable conditions persist. Growers and buyers should expect the forecast to keep moving as the season progresses.
For an industry that has grown rapidly on booming US demand, the repeated downgrades carry a clear lesson. Yield volatility now shapes how much Peru can actually ship, as much as market access does. A forecast cut of this size, arriving twice within a single month, is telling. It suggests exporters are still working out how much of this year’s heat damage has already happened. How much is still to come remains unclear, with the harvest continuing through the Peruvian summer.
Buyers in the three largest markets will feel any further cut first. US retailers have built promotional calendars around Peru’s record volumes, and a tighter supply could push prices higher just as northern hemisphere demand peaks for winter fruit. Dutch and Chinese importers, who together take almost a quarter of Peru’s exports, face the same exposure if Proarándanos trims its numbers again within the fortnight it has promised.
