The Philippines’ rice inventories fell 8% year on year in September. That leaves the country more exposed than its regional neighbours to a looming El Nino-driven supply squeeze. The figures come from the latest government data and fresh risk analysis published by BMI, a unit of the credit rating agency Fitch.
Total stocks stood at 1.91 million tonnes as of 1 September, down from 2.07 million tonnes a year earlier, the Philippine Statistics Authority reported. The figure also marked a 12.4% drop from the 2.18 million tonnes recorded in August. Stocks held by the National Food Authority fell hardest, down 36.1% year on year. Household stocks slipped a slimmer 0.6%.
BMI said rice reserves in the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam have all fallen below 2023 levels. It singled out the Philippines as the country most exposed to higher prices this cycle. The country imports around a third of its domestic rice supply, leaving it little buffer if an approaching El Nino cuts regional harvests.
Imports climb as domestic supply tightens
Rice imports have already risen sharply to compensate. The Bureau of Plant Industry recorded 4.07 million tonnes of imports as of 1 October, up 20% from 3.39 million tonnes over the same period last year. Vietnam supplied the bulk of that volume, at 2.73 million tonnes. Thailand followed with 552,667 tonnes and Myanmar with 418,854 tonnes.
BMI’s analysts warned that drought risk will climb across Southeast Asia as El Nino strengthens. Rice is among the commodities most exposed, alongside sugar, palm oil and coffee. In previous El Nino episodes, the share of cropland exposed to high-intensity drought rose by 11 to 12 percentage points on average across vulnerable regions. BMI placed the Philippines in that group this time round, alongside Thailand, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Guyana and Suriname. The Philippine Department of Agriculture has separately projected that El Nino could cut national rice production by about 700,000 tonnes. That figure would further strain a country already leaning more heavily on imports than usual.
That reliance on imports is not new. The Philippines has run a rice deficit for years, a legacy of limited arable land and a population that consumes more rice per person than most of its South-east Asian neighbours. What has changed this year is the margin for error: thinner domestic stocks mean any shortfall in the coming harvest would be felt sooner, and more sharply, at the market stall.
There was a partial offset in the global outlook, however. BMI noted that India’s record rice stocks reduce the risk of a repeat of the pre-emptive export curbs that drove the 2023-24 global price spike. That should limit the scale of any renewed surge in world prices, even as Philippine reserves tighten.
Procurement push targets wet-season harvest
Domestically, officials are trying to use the lower stock position to their advantage. National Food Authority administrator Larry Lacson said the thinner inventory gives the agency more room to buy unmilled rice, known as palay, from farmers during the ongoing wet-season harvest. The agency is targeting purchases of up to 500,000 tonnes. Palay procurement for the year is expected to reach 592,000 tonnes by December, short of the agency’s original 790,000-tonne forecast but still a meaningful addition to public reserves.
As of September, commercial traders held the largest share of national rice stocks at 42.8%. Households followed close behind at 42.2%, with the National Food Authority holding the remaining 15%. That distribution shows how much of the country’s rice security now rests with private traders and import flows rather than government-held buffers. It is a structural shift that will shape how the Philippines manages supply if the forecast El Nino event intensifies into next year.
The same disaster-preparedness question is shaping food policy elsewhere in government, where scientists are separately building better-nourished emergency food rations in case a poor harvest forces communities to rely on relief supplies.
