Food security is not just about producing enough grain. It is about producing the right crops, in the right regions, with the right ecological footprint, to withstand heat, water stress, and geopolitical disruptions. India must align its food security priorities with long-term climate resilience. The pathway to achieving this is strategic, structural and policy-driven.
India’s food policy remains heavily rice and wheat-centric, a legacy of historical priorities and procurement-driven models. Climate resilience demands a decisive shift toward diversification, embracing millets, pulses, oilseeds, climate-resilient underutilized legumes and nutri-cereals in drylands. Procurement policies must reward crops that conserve water and tolerate heat, rather than solely focusing on maximizing procurement volumes.
The adversities of climate change
Climate-mapping analysis by SBSF Consultancy reveals a concerning temperature trajectory for India between 2013 and 2033. During June, temperatures are projected to rise by 2–3°C across several regions, while the heart of India faces an unexpected dip of 4–6°C or more. These swings will disrupt sowing calendars, alter crop suitability, and threaten yield stability.
The projections for November are also a matter of concern. A sharp rise in temperatures is expected in the north and northeast, with Uttar Pradesh and northern Bihar experiencing patches of over 6°C warming. Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and northern Bengal are projected to warm by 4–6°C. This has major implications for rabi crops, pest dynamics, and groundwater use.
This has a direct bearing on food security, farmer income and rural stability. India’s agricultural policy must urgently mainstream climate-mapping insights into cropping strategies, seed development, irrigation planning, and risk insurance.
Tapping AI-driven geo-spatial intelligence
India can align food security with long-term climate resilience faster and more systematically by embedding AI-driven geo-spatial intelligence into national planning. CropLocator, developed by SBSF, serves as the execution backbone for this transformation.
An AI-based CropLocator platform maps real-time agro-climatic suitability, overlays rainfall variability, temperature projections, soil health, and groundwater stress, and identifies district-wise optimal crop portfolios under future climate scenarios. This enables a shift from politically driven cropping patterns to a climate-aligned cropping architecture.
Key initiatives for a climate-smart future
To build a resilient agricultural framework, India must focus on several key areas:
Invest in stress-resilient genetics: Climate resilience requires location-specific genetics. We need heat-tolerant wheat, submergence-tolerant rice, and drought-resilient pulses and oilseeds. Strengthening public breeding institutions and genomic selection platforms is central. CropLocator can identify trait-demand hotspots and guide public breeding programs toward region-specific priorities, making breeding demand-driven rather than institution-driven.
Set up a soil carbon and water restoration mission: Resilience begins below ground. Large-scale composting, the use of digestate from CBG plants, crop residue incorporation instead of burning, micro-irrigation expansion, and regenerative practices in rainfed areas are essential. By integrating soil organic carbon data and residue management status, CropLocator can identify districts suitable for a regenerative transition, aligning productivity with soil restoration.
Accelerate diversification beyond rice and wheat: Instead of blanket diversification appeals, CropLocator can identify micro-regions where millets, pulses, groundnut, soybean, or annual edible oilseeds outperform rice in risk-adjusted returns. It can quantify import substitution potential and provide transition roadmaps for farmers, reducing food import vulnerability and strengthening national security.
Resort to climate-smart MSP targeting: Minimum Support Price (MSP) and procurement architecture must be redesigned. CropLocator can generate water-use intensity maps, carbon footprint estimates, and yield-risk projections. The government can then differentially incentivize low-water crops in Punjab and Haryana, promote pulses and oilseeds in suitable rainfed belts, and support millets and climate-resilient legumes in arid zones. MSP must become science-calibrated, not uniform.
Adopt risk forecasting and early warning systems: Integrated with IMD data and satellite feeds, CropLocator can predict heat stress windows, flag drought-prone clusters, and detect crop failure risk early. This supports proactive crop insurance triggers and contingency crop planning.
A phased transformation model
The institutional integration of this intelligence is vital. CropLocator can be embedded within NITI Aayog for strategic planning, ICAR for breeding alignment, FCI for procurement redesign and MoAFW for MSP rationalization. This converts AI from a pilot project into a national planning instrument.
The transformation can be executed in five phases:
- Phase I: Climate-risk mapping of major food crops
- Phase II: AI-guided diversification clusters
- Phase III: MSP recalibration and procurement redesign
- Phase IV: Soil carbon and regenerative transition districts
- Phase V: National Food–Climate Dashboard for policymakers
From crisis to new opportunities
India is on track to become one of the world’s most water-stressed countries within the next 15 years. It is important therefore that a strategic agenda for water-smart agriculture is put in place. India cannot afford unsustainable crop patterns, ignoring ecological realities for short-term gains.
By institutionalizing AI-based spatial intelligence, India can move from subsidy-led agriculture to science-led resilience. CropLocator can compress what would otherwise take 15–20 years of policy drift into a 5–7 year data-driven transition. India’s food security challenge must pivot from disparate attempts to a comprehensive risk management that takes into consideration the impact of climate volatility. And we must act now to make a difference.
Dr. Mukti Sadhan Basu is the MD of SBSF Consultancy; Consultant TATA Trust, Ex Director, ICAR, Visiting Scientist, ICRISAT and UN International Consultant, Africa.He can be reached at muktisadhan@gmail.com; follow him on Linkedin
Dr. Mukti S. Basu, Ph.D, is a distinguished scientist specializing in peanut research and agricultural innovation. With a career spanning over three decades, he has played key roles in advancing food security and sustainable agriculture. Dr. Basu earned his M.Sc. in Agriculture and Ph.D. in Genetics and Plant Breeding from the University of Calcutta before joining the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) in 1972.
During his 36-year tenure at ICAR, he served as All India Project Coordinator and Director of the National Research Centre for Groundnut, leading numerous impactful international projects. These include United Nations Development Programme initiatives for aflatoxin-safe groundnut production, Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) projects on drought resistance and water use efficiency, as well as European Union-funded work on Bambara groundnut cultivation in semi-arid regions.
Dr. Basu’s expertise has been sought globally, including roles as Visiting Scientist at ICRISAT’s Asia Centre and UNIDO consultant in Africa for aflatoxin management. Beyond research, he has held leadership positions such as Executive Director at Urvara Biotech and Vice President at Kristian Seeds Ltd. Currently, he is the Managing Director of SBSF Consultancy, a multidisciplinary scientific group serving the food, agriculture, and life sciences sectors across India, Europe, and the United States.
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